I am an early riser and arrive in the office at about 6:00am because I like the quiet time. While preparing for the day I stream CNBC’s Squawk Box for up-to-the-second business news. Depending on Trump’s tweets, the latest on Brexit, or the turmoil in Hong Kong, predictions fly on the looming recession, about which every commentator is gleefully prognosticating. And then, the Wall Street Journal runs a first page headline that the US jobless rate just hit a 50-year low!
Among the Fortune 500, most balance sheets are in great shape, the banking-system is uber-healthy, factories are taking on more orders, and we don’t have enough employees for the demand. So, what we are experiencing is the “expectation” that a recession is just around the corner because it has been a ten-year bull run.
We’ll, I beg to differ. The “great recession” almost sank the world economy, and it was not until 2014 or 2015 when the US economy finally gained solid economic traction. So, we are actually in a 4, maybe 5 year full market. But nevertheless the pundits will press ahead with their foreboding of the next recession.